postsovietПроблемы постсоветского пространстваPost-Soviet Issues2313-89202587-8174The Centre of Regional Research10.24975/2313-8920-2019-6-2-129-148postsoviet-195Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯECONOMYЭкономическое сотрудничество Казахстана и Китая в первые годы реализации Инициативы Пояса и Пути: оценка предварительных итоговEconomic cooperation of Kazakhstan and China in the early years of the Belt and Path Initiative implementation: an evaluation of the preliminary resultsДодоновВячеслав Ю.DodonovVyacheslav Yu.

Вячеслав Ю. Додонов, Доктор экономических наук

050000, Республика Казахстана, г. Алматы, ул. Тулебаева, 162;

Vyacheslav Yu. Dodonov, Doctor of Economics

bld. 162, Tulebaev str., Almaty, 050000, the Republic of Kazakhstan;

dodonovv@mail.ruКазахстанский институт стратегических исследований при Президенте Республики КазахстанКазахстанKazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of KazakhstanKazakhstan20190708201962129148Copyright © Додонов В.Ю., 20192019Додонов В.Ю.Dodonov V.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.postsovietarea.com/jour/article/view/195

Реализация масштабной Инициативы Пояса и Пути КНР, охватывающейнесколько десятков стран, происходит уже на протяжении нескольких лет и позволяетсделать некоторые предварительные оценки ее влияния на двустороннее экономическоесотрудничество Казахстана и Китая. В статье анализируется динамика ключевых показателей, отражающих основные направления этого сотрудничества (торговлю, взаимныеинвестиции, внешний долг Казахстана перед КНР) в период с 2013 года, когда было объявлено о проекте Экономического пояса Шелкового пути, по 2018 год.Анализ взаимной торговли Казахстана и КНР, а также основных направлений инвестиционного сотрудничества не выявил существенного изменения объемов соответствующихпараметров в период реализации инициативы. Более того, практически по всем рассмотренным направлениям наблюдается снижение интенсивности сотрудничества, котороеособенно заметно при анализе динамики относительных показателей. В статье исследуются причины возникновения данных тенденций, рассматривается их международныйконтекст, а также анализируются расхождения в казахстанской и китайской статистикедвустороннего сотрудничества.

The implementation of the PRC’s large-scale Belt and Road Initiative, which coversseveral dozen countries, has been going on for several years and allows us to make some preliminary assessments of its impact on bilateral economic cooperation between Kazakhstan andChina. The article analyzes the dynamics of key indicators reflecting the main directions of thiscooperation (trade, mutual investments, external debt of Kazakhstan to the PRC) in the periodfrom 2013, when the Silk Road Economic Belt project was announced, until 2018.An analysis of mutual trade between Kazakhstan and the PRC, as well as the main areas of investment cooperation, did not reveal a significant change in the volumes of the relevant parameters during the implementation of the initiative. Moreover, in almost all the considered areas, adecrease in the intensity of cooperation is observed, which is especially noticeable when analyzing the dynamics of relative figures. The article examines the causes of these trends, examinestheir international context, and also analyzes the differences in the Kazakh and Chinese data ofbilateral cooperation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.