The Main Driving Forces of The Energy Transition And The Problems of Achieving It
https://doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2021-8-2-256-276
Abstract
The coronavirus pandemic not only led to an economic downturn around the world and had a very direct impact on the state of energy markets, but also accelerated the global changes that had accumulated in society for years and decades, and served as a catalyst for global transformations, including the energy transition. The article examines the role of the coronavirus pandemic in accelerating the energy transition, shows its main components, analyzes the driving forces of this process and the main beneficiaries of its implementation. In order to answer the question of whether the energy transition is achievable within the announced time frame, the calculations of the human demand for primary energy in 2050 are carried out. Based on the need to significantly reduce the gap in per capita energy consumption of the population of developed and developing countries, the analysis of the main problems of the energy transition is made.
About the Author
A. M. Mastepanov
Oil and Gas Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Doctor of Economic Sciences
bld. 14, Lelinsky pr., Moscow, 119991, Russia
References
1. Mastepanov A.M. Big cycles and “black swans”. Energy policy. 2020;6:4-19. (In Russ.).
2. Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of China and Russia on Certain Aspects of Global Governance in Modern Conditions. March 23, 2021. URL: https://www.mid.ru/main_de/-/asset_publisher/G51iJnfMMNKX/content/id/4647776 [Accessed: 25.03.2021] (In Russ.).
3. Coronavirus COVID-19. Statistics. April 20, 2021. URL: https://news.mail.ru/coronavirus/stat/msk/ [Accessed: 20.04.2021] (In Russ.).
4. The UN announced the reduction of the world economy in 2020 by 4.3%. January 25, 2021. URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/10542613 [Accessed: 25.03.2021]. (In Russ.).
5. Global economic recovery remains fragile - UN. TV BRICS. January 26, 2021. URL: https://finance.rambler.ru/markets/45680251/?utm_content=finance_media&utm_medium=read_more&utm_source=copylink [Accessed: 25.03.2021] (In Russ.).
6. Batyrov T. Forbes names the richest billionaires in the world. 06.04.2021. URL: https://www.forbes.ru/newsroom/milliardery/425331-forbes-nazval-bogateyshih-milliarderov-mira [Accessed: 10.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
7. Hans von der Brelie. Spain and Austria: Covid is devastating the middle class. URL: https://ru.euronews.com/2020/12/11/covid-poverty-spain-austra [Accessed: 29.03.2021] (In Russ.).
8. Mastepanov A.M. World energy - new challenges. Report at the annual forum Club of Nice "Energy and Geopolitics". URL: http://www.clubdenice.eu/2009/Cpte_rendu_forum_2009.pdf (The site is currently not functioning) (In Russ.).
9. Energy and Geopolitics / ed. V.V. Kostyuk and A.A. Makarov. Moscow: Nauka; 2011. 397 p. (In Russ.).
10. Energy priorities and security of Russia (oil and gas complex) / Edited by A.M. Mastepanov. Moscow: OOO Gazprom Expo; 2013. 336 p. (In Russ.).
11. Mastepanov A.M. World energy: once again about new challenges. Problems of Economics and Management of the Oil and Gas Complex. 2014;11:4-6 (In Russ.).
12. Mastepanov A.M., Shafranik Yu. K. Russian energy: the choice of development in new conditions. Energy policy. 2014;5:21-31. (In Russ.).
13. Modern world politics: Textbook / Ed. E. P. Bazhanova; Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. 2nd ed. Moscow: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and K"; 2019. 450 p. (In Russ.).
14. Kurginyan S.E. Online seminar "Current economic situation: instructions for use." Issue №6. 03.24.2021. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pR-WhvUdaMw [Accessed: 25.03.2021] (In Russ.).
15. Shafranik Yu. K. The multipolar energy world of our time: the state and trends. Energy policy. 2016;6:3-8. (In Russ.).
16. Mastepanov A.M. The turning point of energy philosophy. Oil of Russia. 2014;11-12:17-24. (In Russ.).
17. Mastepanov A.M., Sumin A.M. Energy policy of India in the period energy transition. Energy Policy. 2020;9(151):74-91 (In Russ.).
18. Mastepanov A.M. The main trends and factors in the development of world energy in 2010s. Bulletin of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. Russia and the world. 2019;2(20):40-63 (In Russ.).
19. Summary for Policymakers. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C. URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf [Accessed: 1.04.2021].
20. Future of Energy. Global Issue. Co-curated with: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. August 27, 2020. URL: https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb00000038oN6EAI?tab=publications [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
21. Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019. Insight Report. World Economic Forum, June 2019. URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_2019_Report.pdf [Accessed: 29.03.2021].
22. Mastepanov A.M. Energy transition: what to prepare for the global oil and gas. Problems of Economics and Management of the Oil and Gas Complex. 2019;10(178):5-14 (In Russ.).
23. Mastepanov A.M. Energy transition as a general direction for the development of energy of the future. Ecological Bulletin of Russia. 2020;1:10-15. (In Russ.).
24. Energy Technology Perspectives 2017. Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations. International Energy Agency, OECD/IEA, 2017. 443 р.
25. Mastepanov A.M., Chigarev B. N. The Energy Trilemma Index as an assessment of energy security. Energy Policy. 2020;8(150):66-83 (In Russ.).
26. Emissions Gap Report 2020. United Nations Environment Programme (2020). UNEP, UNEP DTU Partnership, Nairobi. 124 Р. URL: https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 [Accessed: 5.04.2021].
27. Pathway to critical and formidable goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is narrow but brings huge benefits, according to IEA special report. Press release. 18 May 2021. URL: https://www.iea.org/news/pathway-to-critical-and-formidable-goal-of-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-narrow-but-brings-huge-benefits [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
28. World Energy Outlook 2020. OECD/IEA, 2020. 464 p. URL: https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2020 [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
29. 2019. Outlook for energy: a perspective to 2040. ExxonMobil. 58 р. URL: http://www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
30. Energy efficiency 2018. Analysis and outlooks to 2040. OECD/IEA, 2018, 174 p. URL: https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2369?fileName=Market_Report_Series_Energy_Efficiency_2018.pdf [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
31. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Modeling_Forum [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
32. EMF 27: Global Model Comparison Exercise. URL: https://emf.stanford.edu/projects/emf-27-global-model-comparison-exercise [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
33. An economy for the 99%. January 2017. URL: https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/file_attachments/bp-economy-for-99-percent-160117-summ-en.pdf [Accessed: 28.03.2021].
34. Oxfam International. Just 8 men own same wealth as half the world. 16th January 2017. URL: https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2017-01-16/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world [Accessed: 28.03.2021].
35. Aratani L. Electricity needed to mine bitcoin is more than used by “entire countries”. 27 Feb 2021. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/feb/27/bitcoin-mining-electricity-use-environmental-impact [Accessed: 28.03.2021].
36. Understanding Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). URL:chttps://www.seforall.org/data-and-evidence/understanding-sdg7 [Accessed: 29.03.2021].
37. Pandemic will increase the number of poor by 115 million. October 17, 2020. URL: https://news.un.org/ru/story/2020/10/1388252 [Accessed: 10.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
38. Kutuzova M. Half a trillion dollars for decarbonization. 26.02.2021. URL: http://neftianka.ru/poltrilliona-dollarov-na-dekarbonizaciyu/ [Accessed: 10.04.2021). (In Russ.).
39. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ [Accessed: 25.03.2021].
40. Energy Transition Outlook 2020. A global and regional forecast to 2050. 306 pages. URL: https://www.dnv.com/Publications/energy-transition-outlook-2020-186774 [Accessed: 5.04.2021].
41. Equinor. Energy Perspectives 2018. Long-term macro and market outlook 2018. 60 Р. URL: https://www.equinor.com/en/news/07jun2018-energy-perspectives.html [Accessed: 5.04.2021].
42. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. 2020 World Oil Outlook 2045. October 2020. 309/332 p. URL: http://www.opec.org. [Accessed: 5.04.2021].
43. Degtyarev K.S., Zalikhanov A.M., Solovyov A.A., Solovyov D.A. On the question of the economics of renewable energy sources. Energy: economics, technology, ecology. 2016;10:10-20 (In Russ.).
44. Sidorovich V. ICUF in wind energy: higher and higher. 19.02.2017. URL: https://renen.ru/wind-energy-capacity-factor/ [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
45. Davydov D. A quick energy transition is an illusion, it is impossible. March 21, 2021. URL: https://teknoblog.ru/2021/03/21/110881?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
46. Dyatel T. The European energy sector is greening. Kommersant. 2021;12 (In Russ.).
47. Ignace A. Bill Gates: «Humanity must take the most incredible step in history». March 31, 2021. URL: https://hbr-russia.ru/liderstvo/lidery/862148?noredir=true [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
48. Energy storage. The world's largest battery energy storage system with a capacity of 250 MW has been commissioned in California (August 2020). URL: https://energy.hse.ru/accenergy [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
49. Davydov D. The energy transition will lead to a huge shortage of important metals. March 9, 2021. URL: https://teknoblog.ru/2021/03/09/110683 [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
50. Hook L., Sanderson H. How the race for renewable energy is reshaping global politics. Financial Times, 4.02.2021. URL: https://www.ft.com/content/a37d0ddf-8fb1-4b47-9fba-7ebde29fc510?segmentId=114a04fe-353d-37db-f705-204c9a0a157b [Accessed: 5.04.2021].
51. Konoplyanik A. Struggle for the climate and for a new redivision of the world. January 31, 2021. URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2021/01/31/856109-borba-peredel [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
52. «Green» energy will deprive oil producers of $ 13 trillion. February 12, 2021. URL: http://www.ngv.ru/news/zelenaya_energetika_lishit_nefteproizvoditeley_13_trln/ [Accessed: 25.03.2021]. (In Russ.).
53. Mastepanov A.M. Energy transition as a general direction for the development of energy of the future. Ecological Bulletin of Russia. 2020;2:12-19. (In Russ.).
54. Olivia Lazard. Climatic disarmament. Can climate change bring Russia and the US closer together. 26.03.2021. URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/84034 [Accessed: 5.04.2021]. (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Mastepanov A.M. The Main Driving Forces of The Energy Transition And The Problems of Achieving It. Post-Soviet Issues. 2021;8(2):256-276. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2021-8-2-256-276
Views:
999
Email this article 